Editor’s note: With a new sheriff in town, Jacob Zuma may face several possible scenarios.
Now that Jacob Zuma is no longer at the helm of the ANC he is in a vulnerable position, while still technically the president of South Africa, the real power lies in Luthuli house.
Cyril Ramaphosa has been elected the new president and one of his campaign promises was to fight corruption, and Zuma’s presidency has been fraught with allegations of impropriety.
Zuma’s scandal-ridden term as ANC president may result in one of the following three scenarios playing out.
1. You Are The Weakest Link, Goodbye
In order to shift the balance of power firmly into the hands of Ramaphosa, Zuma might simply be fired. The ANC might wish to show that it is self-correcting and position itself to succeed in the 209 general elections and relieve itself of the political liability of Jacob Zuma.
Ramaphosa’s victory was by no means a landslide and Zuma still enjoys a great deal of support from within the party, no to mention three of the top six are perceived to be on his side. Removing Zuma may result in a split, similar to when Thabo Mbeki was recalled.
Replying to @PhakamaGwayi
The people who elected Zuma can recall him through the ANC branches just like they did with Thabo Mbeki
1:01 PM – Jun 22, 2017
Ultimately the decision to sack Zuma would lie with the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) which comprises of over 100 members. If the NEC does recall Zuma it might be before the State of the Nation address in February.
Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni believes that the ANC might be forced to wait in case removing Zuma might face resistance from the state president who might be prepared to take the ANC down with him. Therefore, the ANC might wait until Zuma’s legal woes catch up to him and allow the courts to deal with him.
If the ANC was smart they will recall Zuma at the end of #ANC54 conference .. the can’t be two leaders of the nation ” those where the words used when they removed thabo mbeki.. “the axe forgets the tree remembers”
2:31 PM – Dec 19, 2017
These may include the charges of corruption which still hang over Zuma’s head and the state capture judicial inquiry which might find evidence of collusion between Zuma and the Guptas.
Thabo Mbeki was recalled by the NEC.
2. He might jump before he is pushed Zuma might resign voluntarily after being convinced that it is the best for the party and the country.
Fikeni thinks that the party understands that Zuma is a political liability who will be in and out of courts throughout 2018. If this is the case the ANC will be associated with the negative association of the prolonged court action.
Jacob Zuma faces numerous court challenges in 2018.
This could cost the ANC dearly in 2019, as a result, the ANC may negotiate Zuma’s exit from power.
I’m struggling to see any positive out of the ANC conference besides the end of Zuma’s reign as president. I’m no fan of Cyril while old men and Gupta’s still hold power.
7:52 PM – Dec 18, 2017
3. Long live the king Keeping Jacob Zuma on as president of South Africa may be seen as the lesser of the two evils, with the prospect of the party fracturing if Zuma is recalled. A split in the party may be seen as even worse than Zuma’s political liability.
President Zuma remains the winner. He won’t be recalled….
8:30 PM – Dec 18, 2017
Ramaphosa may be advised to allow Zuma to fight his court battles and allow the new ANC president to prepare for the general elections. This would allow Ramaphosa some breathing room effectively removing Zuma as a threat.
Cyril Ramaphosa may not need to remove Jacob Zuma.
The key issues facing the party are a plan to unify the party and to convince South Africa that the ANC still has the people’s interests at heart.
Ramaphosa’s best bet now is to put in place a strong and independent NDPP who will prosecute state capture and corruption cases. That way he will weed out Zuma/Gupta allies in powerful positions and restore credibility. He will have to move quickly.
The awkward moment when Zuma is the President of the country and Ramaphosa remains the Deputy President of the country
8:43 PM – Dec 18, 2017
By: Stefan Mack/Briefly