South Africa’s Shock Crime Statistics: More Worrying Than Corruption? Expert Analysis

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South Africans have been baying for blood as evidence mounts that the country’s political leaders have been feathering their nests through a range of approaches – from state capture to corruption. Yet, equally appalling is the government’s poor record on tackling the country’s crime rate. South Africans are so inured to murder, rape, robbery and other acts of extreme violence, it seems, that some see it as a positive sign that the murder rate in Cape Town has dropped from 63 out of every 100 000 Capetonians to 62 out of every 100 000. That decline, however, is minuscule, and to focus on that – and other similar trends – in the national crime figures released by police is to ignore an astonishing state of affairs: innocent citizens are being killed and maimed at a rate that makes the country look like a war zone. The reasons for the high crime rate are complex and include legacy apartheid issues. But in reality, the ANC government has failed to put a concerted effort into radically overhauling the system so that justice is seen to be done – swiftly. The Oscar Pistorius trial reminded the world that beyond those postcard-perfect pictures of Table Mountain, safari parks, and pristine seascapes, South Africa has a vicious underbelly – and for that, there must be a price to pay in terms of keeping a lid on the tourism industry. For citizens, however, who live their daily lives literally dodging bullets and losing friends and family to crimes that go unpunished, the price must increasingly be a political one. The crime rate has surely played into the sharp fall-off in support for the ANC in the country’s metropolitan areas where survival cannot be possible without defences ranging from burglar bars to guns and other weapons.- Jackie Cameron

By Anine Kriegler

South Africa struggles with very high levels of crime and violence. Take the crime statistic on murder rates. The country ranks in the top 10 worst countries that report crime statistics according to the most recent data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

Crime rate comparisons between countries are fraught with challenges and should be understood as broad indications rather than accurate quantitative relationships. Nevertheless, South Africa by any measure has a serious crime problem.

What insights can be gleaned from the latest annual crime statistics released by South Africa’s police?

What the numbers say

To draw meaningful conclusions about longer-term trends it is necessary to use rates per 100,000 people in the population. For the last few years, South Africa’s police force has opted to publicise only the raw figures for the number of crimes recorded. This doesn’t account for population growth over time or differences in population sizes between regions or towns.

The latest numbers had this to reveal about the five key crime types that are particularly worth watching.

Murder rate: this has risen nationally for the fourth year in a row, from 33 per 100,000 in 2014/2015 to 34 per 100,000 last year.

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More concerning than the overall high number of murders, which is by no means a new development, is the fact that its rate of increase has accelerated. Whereas the rise from 2013/2014 to 2014/2015 was by 2.6%, the rise from 2014/2015 to 2015/2016 was by 3.1%. This suggests that the recent increase in fatal violence is not slowing and that South Africa may be in for several more years of increase. The country urgently needs to work out why these increases are happening.

crime statistics

The murder rate in Cape Town: after five bad years, this may finally have turned the corner. Cape Town’s murder rate declined from 63 per 100,000 last year to 62 this year. This is a positive sign, but there is clearly a lot more work to be done. It is still at almost twice the national rate and among the highest in the world.

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Aggravated robbery trends: The national rates of residential and non- residential robbery showed no decline although the rate at which they increased was smaller than it had been in years. Following the major increases between 2005/2006 and 2008/2009, it seems that relative stability in these crimes may have been reached. Turning them to a decline looks increasingly possible. The police should take heart.

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Burglary: Recorded rates of burglary have continued their long and fairly steady decline and are now about a third lower than they were 15 years ago. This should be a comfort given how much this crime contributes to public fear. It does, however, appear that people may have become less inclined to report this crime to the police. The upcomingVictims of Crime Survey should be watched closely to see if this trend continues and to what extent it may be contributing to recorded rates of decline.

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Drug-related crime and illegal possession of firearms: There has been a decrease in the recorded rates of drug-related crime for the first time in more than 20 years.

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This could be the police’s new back to basics plan in action. The acting head of police Lieutenant General Khomotso Phahlane has championed a renewed focus on policing fundamentals and areas of under-performance. This may have resulted in resources being directed away from seeking out drug-related crimes.

Depending on where you stand on the issue of the desirability or effectiveness of drug prohibition, this may or may not seem like a good thing.

The rates of illegal firearm possession have also decreased slightly in the last year.

It is important to remember that national statistics say very little about how individuals experience crime. Each neighbourhood is different, which requires individuals to do a deep dive into the crimes reported at local police stations.

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